Events
Each event is recorded with at least two independent sources, graded by importance and marked on the charts of the indicators it affects.
Event map· 94 items · 31 high importance
165 events
22 September 2026, Tuesday
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaBrent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflictExpectations of US-Iran diplomacy pushed oil down by about 5 dollars in five days. On actual traffic through Hormuz sources conflict: 17 vessel transits were reported over the weekend, against a pre-war average of 125 ships a day.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaErdoğan addresses the UN General Assembly for the 16th time: the will of more than 190 countries cannot rest on fiveIn a speech of roughly 40 minutes, Erdoğan called for recognition of Palestine within the 1967 borders, a restructuring of the Security Council and an end to the isolation imposed on Turkish Cypriots.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtEuropeUK borrowing rises to 18.3 billion pounds in August as debt interest sets a record at 8.8 billionAccording to ONS data published on 22 September, public sector net borrowing reached 18.3 billion pounds in August; that is 3.5 billion pounds above the OBR forecast and the second-highest August figure on record.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsSub-Saharan AfricaValve number 7 on Libya's Sharara pipeline is shut and the NOC reports a loss of 130,000 barrels a dayAn armed group closed a valve on the Sharara-Zawiya crude oil line on the night of 21 September; Libya's National Oil Corporation announced a production loss of 130,000 barrels a day on 22 September and warned it may declare force majeure.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsEurasiaTrump announces a huge deal to buy Belarusian potash; Lukashenko replies that this year's entire output is already contractedOn 21 September Trump announced that the United States would buy Belarusian potash at a price markedly below what it pays Canada. The next day Lukashenko said no exportable volume was left. In 2024, 80% of US potash came from Canada.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceSub-Saharan AfricaMali marks its 66th independence anniversary under a fuel blockade as the death toll at Dioura passes 100Bamako has been under a JNIM fuel blockade since September 2025; on 14 September more than 900 tankers entered the city under military protection. Military losses in the 10 September attack at Dioura range from 100 to 150 depending on the source.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsEurasiaUkraine strikes the Kuibyshev and Ufa refineries: more than 45% of Russian refining capacity is out of serviceOn the night of 21-22 September the Kuibyshev refinery in Samara, with capacity of 7 million tonnes a year, and Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan, with 7.5 million tonnes a year, were struck. Ukraine's General Staff said more than 45% of design capacity was out of service as of 21 September.
- MediumII Cyber & InfrastructureSouth AsiaSideCopy targets Indian universities with ReverseRAT: data exfiltrated through port 5863According to a Trellix analysis published on 22 September 2026, the Pakistan-based SideCopy group has widened its targeting from government and defence institutions to academic institutions in India; the phishing chain loads ReverseRAT through mshta.exe.
- MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificTaiwan's August export orders reach a record 102.96 billion dollars, up 71.4% year on yearTaiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs put August export orders at 102.96 billion dollars on 22 September 2026; the annual increase rose to 71.4% from 61.9% in July and the run extended to a 19th month.
- LowIV Macro & DebtTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodThe consumer confidence index rises to 91.9 in September, its highest level since July 2018In the TurkStat-CBRT survey the index rose 1.3% from 90.8 in August to 91.9; it remained below the 100 threshold and the sub-index for the current financial situation fell to 75.3.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceAsia-PacificXi will press for a halt to arms sales to Taiwan at the 24 September summit, invoking the 1982 communiquéAccording to 3 sources who spoke to Reuters, Chinese leader Xi Jinping will ask Trump at the Washington summit on 24 September 2026 to halt arms sales to Taiwan and suspend deliveries of weapons already ordered. The basis is the third joint communiqué of 1982.
21 September 2026, Monday
- MediumIV Macro & DebtAmericasArgentina's country risk climbs to 533 basis points as an IMF mission arrives in Buenos Aires for the third reviewCountry risk rose for a sixth consecutive day on 21 September to 533 basis points, a four-month high; the same day an IMF mission reached Buenos Aires for the third review of the 20 billion dollar programme.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtEurasiaUnited Russia takes as many as 355 seats in the 450-seat Duma on 59.32% turnout: a constitutional majority secured for tax and budget decisionsIn the State Duma election held on 18-20 September, United Russia won 57.83% on the party list and finished ahead in 208 of the 225 single-member districts. The threshold for constitutional amendment is 301 seats; on the seat count sources conflict, ranging between 347 and 355.
- LowIV Macro & DebtEuropeBundesbank: the German economy stalls in the third quarter, employment fell by 14,000 in JulyAccording to the monthly report published by the Bundesbank on 21 September, low water levels on the Rhine and temporary line conversions in the car industry are holding back third-quarter growth; inflation rose to 2.9% in August.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodThe dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 pointsThe Fed's move to a policy rate range of 3.75-4.00% and Washington-Tehran tension carried the dollar index to 100.300 points, while the lira hit its weakest level on record.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtAmericasThe Fed's Goolsbee: if inflation is coming from demand, the rate response will be sharper and front-loadedIn a speech in London on 21 September, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said one increase might suffice under a supply-shock scenario, while demand-driven inflation would require a more aggressive path.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceMiddle East and North AfricaThe 72,825 dwt tanker LR Stephanie is struck in Hormuz and two seafarers wounded; weekend transits fall to 17 shipsThe Isle of Man-flagged crude oil tanker was hit by unidentified munitions on 21 September; at least five incidents have been recorded since 16 September, and US accounts and vessel tracking data conflict.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceMiddle East and North AfricaHouthis announce 2 operations against Riyadh and Yanbu, and Trump halts the Yemen strike despite bombs already loadedA Houthi spokesman announced 2 separate operations against Riyadh and Yanbu on 19 September. According to Gulf News, with the target list approved and bombs loaded onto aircraft, Trump halted the Yemen strike on 20-21 September.
- MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificGround is broken on the 89-hectare Baipu chip park in Kaohsiung: 4,000 jobs and NT$300 billion a yearTaiwan's leader Lai Ching-te broke ground on the roughly 89-hectare Baipu Industrial Park in Kaohsiung on 21 September 2026. The park will be the first base dedicated to testing and certifying advanced chip equipment and critical materials; more than 4,000 jobs are projected.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsAmericasSheinbaum: Mexico will buy more from the United States and cut Chinese imports for the sake of the USMCAAt her press conference on 21 September Sheinbaum said the United States wants its trade deficit reduced and that purchases would be shifted towards the United States; Mexico applies tariffs of up to 50% to countries without a free trade agreement.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceSouth AsiaPakistani jets strike Kunar and Paktika: Islamabad announces 28 militants killed, Kabul and the UN report 3 civiliansPakistani warplanes struck the Nurgal district of Kunar and the Barmal district of Paktika in eastern Afghanistan on the morning of 21 September 2026. Islamabad announced that 28 militants had been killed; Kabul and the UN mission reported at least 3 civilians killed and 4 wounded.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodExport producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%According to TurkStat data, export prices rose 3.61% on the month; energy rose 14.68% on the month and 106.24% on the year, carrying the oil shock originating in Hormuz into Türkiye's foreign trade prices.
20 September 2026, Sunday
- MediumIII Conflict & DefenceSub-Saharan AfricaDrone attacks on the Sudanese city of El Obeid kill two people and wound more than twentyEl Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, came under drone attacks lasting from 04.00 until 17.00 on Sunday 20 September; the Sudan Doctors Network reported 2 dead and more than 20 wounded.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceEurasiaBoth crude distillation units at the Moscow Refinery burn and the plant halts: Russia says it downed 1,110 drones overnightAt the refinery in Kapotnya, which supplies 40% of Moscow's fuel market, the AVT-6 unit processing 21,400 tonnes a day and the EURO+ unit processing 18,800 tonnes both burned on the morning of 20 September. Repairs are expected to take weeks.
19 September 2026, Saturday
17 September 2026, Thursday
- MediumV Tech & AIEuropeEU Commission proposes a social media ban for under-13s and guardian-supervised accounts for 13- to 14-year-oldsThe draft presented by von der Leyen and Virkkunen in Strasbourg on 17 September closes off independent accounts below the age of 15 and introduces an annual supervisory fee for platforms.
- HighV Tech & AIMiddle East and North AfricaUnited States notifies Congress of a 48-aircraft F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia worth 24.3 billion dollarsThe State Department notified Congress on 17 September: the package, covering 48 F-35As and 49 F135 engines, would be the first sale of fifth-generation fighter aircraft to Riyadh.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtAmericasArgentina's economy contracted 0.6% in the second quarter and unemployment hit 7.9%, the highest since 2021Data released by INDEC on 17 September showed the first quarterly contraction since 2024; exports alone carried growth, while consumption and investment fell back.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsEuropeEuropean gas storage enters winter 68.5% full as TTF traded in a 77-79 euro band on 17 SeptemberWith the Strait of Hormuz still closed and Qatari LNG flows constrained, storage is roughly 16 points below the seasonal average; the end of the strike at Dunkirk pushed the price down temporarily.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsSouth AsiaGulf crisis hits South Asia: Asian spot LNG at 30 dollars per mmBtu, 78% of Bangladeshi factories halt outputAccording to reports published on 17 September 2026, the LNG shortfall caused by Hormuz and the Red Sea has led to power cuts and factory closures in Bangladesh; the Asian spot LNG price has risen to about 30 dollars per mmBtu.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceMiddle East and North AfricaUN mission treats the US strike on the Minab school as a war crime: at least 178 civilians killed in two attacksAn independent mission under the UN Human Rights Council reached a war crime finding on two US strikes of 28 February; the same report accused Iran of crimes against humanity.
- HighIV Macro & DebtEuropeBank of England holds the policy rate at 3.75% as three of nine members vote for a rise to 4.00%The Bank left the rate unchanged for a sixth consecutive time and slowed the pace of its bond sales; August inflation, published a day earlier, rose to 3.1%.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsAmericasCarney welcomed the EU's first associate membership offer in Strasbourg; 70% of Canadian goods go to the United StatesThe 'associate member' status opened up by von der Leyen on 16 September is a new category without precedent in the EU treaties; Trump described the offer as a hostile act.
- HighIV Macro & DebtAmericasFed dot plot median for 2026 rises to 4.00-4.25% while the 10-year yield eases from 5.04% to 4.94%The projections published after the increase signalled further tightening this year; even so, bond yields eased on 17 September and jobless claims fell to 196,000.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsSub-Saharan AfricaSARB: refinery closures added 76 billion rand (4.68 billion dollars) to South Africa's import bill in 2021-2024According to a study by South African Reserve Bank economists, shrinking refinery capacity cost the country about 76 billion rand, or 4.68 billion dollars, in additional refined product imports in 2021-2024; 5,400 direct and indirect jobs were lost.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsSouth AsiaUS House passed the Russia sanctions bill by 262 to 159 and India responded to the threat of 100% tariffsThe US House of Representatives passed the sanctions bill targeting Russia and Iran by 262 votes to 159 on 16 September 2026. India's Ministry of External Affairs said on 17 September that it would take the steps necessary to protect its trade and economic interests.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsEuropeSweden's opposition bloc took 176 of the 349 seats and Prime Minister Kristersson resignedThe final results of the 13 September election showed a gap of about 50,000 votes between the two blocs; the Sweden Democrats lost ground for the first time since 2010.
- HighI Geo-EconomicsTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodDiesel passed 100 lira a litre in Türkiye for the first time: a third consecutive increaseWith the increase that reached the pumps at midnight on 17 September, diesel rose above 100 lira on both sides of Istanbul and above 101 lira in Ankara and Izmir.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsSouth AsiaPakistan will seek to enlarge its 30 billion yuan China swap line and awaits a 10 billion dollar US facilityFinance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on 17 September 2026 that Pakistan would ask for the fully drawn 30 billion yuan China swap line to be expanded when it matures in 2027, and that it expected an answer within two months on the 10 billion dollar exchange rate stabilisation facility requested from the United States.
- HighIV Macro & DebtEurasiaPutin: the 2027 budget deficit will be about 2% of GDP on an assumption of 50 dollars a barrel, with 2026 growth at most 1%At an economic meeting on 17 September, Putin said the 2027 federal budget deficit would be about 2% of GDP, that this rested on a conservative oil assumption of about 50 dollars a barrel, and that growth in 2026 would be at most 1%.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsMiddle East and North AfricaRussia and China vetoed the UN expert panel monitoring Iran sanctions despite 11 votes in favourIn the Security Council vote on 17 September, the US draft extending the expert panel's mandate by one year received 11 votes in favour; Russia and China used their veto, while Pakistan and Somalia abstained.
- MediumV Tech & AISouth AsiaSEMICON India 2026 opened: more than 600 exhibitors and a target of 50,000 wafers a month at DholeraSEMICON India 2026 opened on 17 September 2026 at Yashobhoomi in Dwarka, New Delhi. More than 600 exhibiting companies took part, while Applied Materials announced a 5 billion dollar investment in India over ten years.
- MediumV Tech & AIAsia-PacificTaiwan is expanding Longtan Science Park by 104 hectares: NT$95.63 billion investment and 4,500 new jobsTaiwan's National Development Council approved a 104-hectare expansion of Longtan Science Park in Taoyuan on 17 September 2026; when the NT$95.63 billion (2.99 billion dollar) project is complete, an annual output value of NT$550 billion is targeted.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtAsia-PacificTaiwan's central bank held its rate at 2.00% and raised its 2026 growth forecast from 9.45% to 11.48%Taiwan's central bank left the discount rate unchanged at 2.00% for a tenth consecutive quarter on 17 September 2026 and raised its 2026 growth forecast from 9.45% to 11.48% on artificial intelligence demand.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceEurasiaThe AVT-3 unit processing 17,140 tonnes a day at the YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl was hit and crude processing stoppedUkrainian drones struck the Slavneft-YANOS refinery 250 km north-east of Moscow overnight on 16-17 September; at the plant, which processes 15 million tonnes a year, the AVT-3 distillation unit carrying about 40% of capacity was knocked out.
16 September 2026, Wednesday
- 21:00HighIV Macro & DebtAmericasFed raises its target range to 3.75–4.00% in its first rate hike since July 2023The FOMC unanimously opted for a 25 basis point hike; the September projections foresee one more hike by the end of 2026.
- 17:30LowI Geo-EconomicsAmericasEIA: US commercial crude stocks fall to 423.4 million barrels, strategic reserve at 285 million barrelsCommercial crude stocks remain above the five-year average, while the real squeeze is in distillates and the strategic reserve.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsSub-Saharan AfricaUS imposes targeted visa restrictions over South Africa's land expropriation without compensation and 'racial discrimination' claims; Pretoria pushes backSecretary of State Rubio imposed visa restrictions on 16 September on individuals deemed responsible for land seizures without compensation. South African Foreign Minister Lamola criticised the decision as based on misinformation from fringe groups.
- LowIV Macro & DebtAmericasGold recovers from a six-week low driven by rising yields, climbing to 4,311 dollarsGold, roughly 23% below its January peak of 5,608 dollars, staged a limited recovery on the day of the Fed decision.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsEurasiaBelarus frees 25 political prisoners in return for the US lifting sanctions on two state companiesUS special envoy John Coale announced an interim agreement the day after his meeting with Lukashenko. Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom are being removed from the sanctions list. According to Viasna, about 887 political prisoners remain behind bars.
- HighIV Macro & DebtTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodBIST 100 fell 5.54% to 13,122.58 points as 17 stocks closed at the floor priceBorsa Istanbul lost 769.72 points on 16 September; the banking and holding indices fell more than 6% and 17 stocks traded down to the floor price.
- MediumIII Conflict & DefenceSouth AsiaUN says apparent stability in Afghanistan masks growing risks: 1.15 million people have returned and only 29.9% of the aid plan is fundedThe UN Secretary-General's report presented at the Security Council meeting on 16 September warns of returns, food insecurity and civilian casualties on the Pakistan border in the fifth year of Taliban rule.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtAmericasBrazil's central bank expected to cut the Selic from 14% to 13.75% at its last meeting before the 4 October electionsCopom met on 15–16 September; the market is pricing a 25 basis point cut, the fifth in a row. August saw monthly deflation of 0.32% and 12-month IPCA fell to 4.22%. The election race, meanwhile, is neck and neck.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtTürkiye and Its NeighbourhoodCentral government budget posted a 12.9 billion lira surplus in August, but the eight-month deficit passed 1.3 trillion liraThe Ministry of Treasury and Finance published the August figures on 16 September: despite the monthly surplus, the January-August deficit reached 1,308.1 billion lira.
- MediumIII Conflict & DefenceSub-Saharan AfricaThousands fleeing renewed fighting in Yemen cross the Red Sea to Djibouti; Djibouti appeals for international assistanceMore than 2,500 Yemenis have arrived in Djibouti since last Thursday, and the interior minister says the number could rise to 10,000 within a few weeks. At least 125,000 people have been displaced in Yemen over the past two weeks.
- HighII Cyber & InfrastructureAmericasCISA added a Cisco ISE zero-day scored CVSS 10.0 to the KEV catalogue and gave federal agencies 3 daysThe flaw, which bypasses authentication entirely, is being actively exploited; Cisco's security team has confirmed the attacks and there is no workaround.
- MediumI Geo-EconomicsAmericasContinental Resources signs memorandum with PDVSA for the 30 billion barrel Ayacucho 2 block in the Orinoco BeltUS-based Continental Resources signed a memorandum of understanding with PDVSA on 16 September to operate the roughly 126,000-acre Ayacucho 2 block in Anzoátegui state with a 100% interest.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtEuropeFrance–Germany 10-year yield spread widens to 95.6 basis points, its highest in a yearECB tightening widened the risk premium on heavily indebted France by about 6 basis points in five days.
- MediumIV Macro & DebtEuropeFrench Prime Minister Lecornu asks ministries to freeze 2027 spending at 2026 levels as the 10-year borrowing rate exceeds 4.5%Lecornu asked for a further 1.5 billion euros of cuts on top of the 30 billion euro savings package. The government warns the deficit could rise to about 6% of GDP without savings. Lacking a parliamentary majority, it faces a tough budget test seven months before the elections.
- HighIII Conflict & DefenceSouth AsiaIndian and Pakistani naval vessels collide in the Arabian Sea as both capitals summon each other's diplomatsOn the night of 15 September a Pakistani naval vessel and an Indian warship collided in the Arabian Sea. This is the first direct military contact between the two nuclear neighbours since the four-day conflict in 2025.