MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence16 September 2026, Wednesday
DR Congo and Rwanda meet for a seventh time in Geneva to discuss implementation of the Washington peace agreement; dispute over the FDLR persists
The Joint Security Coordination Mechanism meets on 16–17 September, mediated by the US, Qatar, Togo and the AU Commission. A day earlier, Rwanda's foreign minister accused Kinshasa of arming the FDLR.
According to Al Jazeera, delegations from DR Congo and Rwanda are meeting in Geneva on 16–17 September to discuss implementation of the agreement signed in Washington on 27 June 2025 and reaffirmed on 4 December 2025. The mediators are the US, Qatar, Togo and the African Union Commission. Under the agreement, Rwanda is to withdraw its forces and lift defensive measures on the border, while Kinshasa is to neutralise the FDLR militia. Rwanda, however, does not accept the disarmament protocol for the FDLR proposed by Kinshasa on 28 July as the neutralisation the agreement requires. The previous meeting was held on 12–13 August.
On 15 September Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said the Congolese government was continuing to supply weapons to the FDLR. He also criticised the mediator for acting in a partisan manner and said Rwanda would continue to defend itself. M23 is not a party to the Washington process; it is negotiating separately under the Doha framework run by Qatar, and fighting continues in the east. Given US strategic interest in Congo's critical minerals, the process is decisive both for cobalt, coltan and tin supply chains in Kivu and for Washington's regional weight. An inconclusive outcome to the talks could prolong cross-border tension.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The seventh Geneva round shows the Washington agreement alive on paper but not implemented on the ground: Rwanda ties withdrawal to the neutralisation of the FDLR, while Kinshasa's disarmament protocol does not meet that condition. With M23 outside the process, expecting a breakthrough from Geneva is unrealistic. The most likely path is a frozen process in which talks continue but so does fighting in the east.
Likely effects
- Critical mineral supplyNegative1–6 months
Continued fighting in Kivu keeps security and continuity risks alive in cobalt, coltan and tin supply chains, and delays Washington's goal of access to Congolese minerals.
- Great Lakes securityNegative1–6 months
The FDLR dispute and Rwanda's accusation of mediator bias prolong cross-border tension; the absence of a Rwandan withdrawal sustains the conflict environment in the east.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Inconclusive but continuing talks70%
The parties stay at the table and a joint statement repeats general commitments; no concrete timetable emerges on the FDLR or withdrawal.
Watch: No concrete FDLR timetable in the post-Geneva statement, and the date of the next round being announced.
- 2Limited compromise on the FDLR formula15%
Under mediator pressure a verifiable neutralisation mechanism is accepted and Rwanda takes a limited withdrawal step.
Watch: Rwanda announcing acceptance of an FDLR neutralisation plan and a first withdrawal step on the ground.
- 3Collapse of the process15%
Mutual accusations render the mechanism dysfunctional, Rwanda distances itself from the JSCM and fighting in the east escalates.
Watch: Rwanda skipping the next meeting, or a major new offensive in Kivu.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.