HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence12 September 2026, Saturday · 23:20 TRT (UTC+3)
North Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles from Wonsan a day after the end of a joint US–South Korea–Japan exercise
On the morning of 12 September Pyongyang fired several ballistic missiles with a range of about 250 km from the Wonsan area. According to state media, the launch was a combined fire drill using three types of nuclear-capable missiles and attack drones.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said that at 05:20 local time on Saturday 12 September several ballistic missiles were launched towards the sea from the Wonsan area on North Korea's east coast and flew about 250 kilometres. The launch came a day after the US, South Korea and Japan concluded their five-day Freedom Edge naval exercise. As reported by NK News, KCNA announced that the drill, involving five artillery and missile units, used three types of nuclear-capable missiles, 600 mm multiple rocket launchers, cruise missiles and various attack drones.
Although US Indo-Pacific Command said the launch posed no immediate threat to US territory or allies, Seoul held an emergency security meeting and stepped up surveillance. According to Al Jazeera, the launch followed one on 12 August, which was the year's 11th suspected ballistic test. North Korea's combined use of missiles and drones in the same drill is read as an effort to demonstrate a multi-axis strike capability against US bases in the region. This keeps the debate over air defence spending alive in Seoul and Tokyo.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Wonsan launch is a by now ritualised response to US–South Korea–Japan exercises and not, on its own, a new escalation threshold. But combining nuclear-capable missiles, multiple rocket launchers and attack drones in one drill reinforces a message of multi-axis strike capability against US bases in the region. Similar sub-strategic tests in the coming weeks are the most likely path; a larger step such as a nuclear test or an intercontinental missile is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Likely effects
- Korean Peninsula securityNegativeWeeks
The exercise-and-test cycle forces Seoul into emergency meetings and heightened surveillance; the combined use of missiles and drones highlights scenarios that strain air defences and keeps the risk of miscalculation alive.
- Seoul and Tokyo defence budgetsNegative6 months+
The display of multi-axis strike capability strengthens political pressure in South Korea and Japan to boost spending on air and missile defence, adding to fiscal burdens.
- US–South Korea–Japan cooperationPositive1–6 months
Each post-exercise test strengthens the case for continuing trilateral naval drills such as Freedom Edge and intelligence sharing, and may accelerate the institutionalisation of trilateral coordination.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low-intensity test cycle continues65%
Pyongyang keeps answering allied exercises with sub-strategic ballistic and cruise missile launches; the situation stays contained.
Watch: New sub-strategic launches and the US–South Korea joint exercise calendar.
- 2Temporary lull25%
North Korea pauses testing for a while, turning attention to cooperation with Russia and domestic economic priorities.
Watch: Several weeks without new launches and signals of diplomatic contact from Pyongyang.
- 3Strategic escalation10%
A larger step such as an intercontinental ballistic missile, a satellite launch or a nuclear test deepens the regional crisis.
Watch: KCNA announcements of intercontinental-range systems or reports of unusual activity at test sites.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.