Gulf crisis hits South Asia: Asian spot LNG at 30 dollars per mmBtu, 78% of Bangladeshi factories halt output

Bangladesh generates more than 40% of its electricity from imported LNG, and Qatar used to supply 95% of those imports. Disruption to Qatari shipments has pushed Dhaka into chasing more expensive spot cargoes. The Asian spot LNG price rose to about 30 dollars per mmBtu this week; before the conflict the floor was around 10 dollars, and this is the second price spike of the year. Shell estimates that about 36 million tonnes of LNG supply from the Middle East was lost in 2026. Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud said industrial output had slowed.

The damage on the industrial side has been measured: according to the BKMEA survey of the knitwear industry, 55% of factories reported that buyers had cancelled or reduced orders since the end of August, while 78% reported partially halting production. At one factory an order for 50,000 units was cut to 40,000; to meet the delivery date, a single shipment incurred 50,000 dollars in air freight costs. On poultry farms, losses of 15-20 birds per farm per day were reported because of interruptions to refrigeration.

On the Pakistani side, fuel prices have risen to about 391 rupees a litre (1.41 dollars) for petrol and 421 rupees (1.52 dollars) for diesel. The government announced a subsidy of 100 rupees a litre for motorcycles, three-wheelers and small vehicles; austerity measures were introduced, including closing markets at 21.00 and cutting official vehicle fuel allocations by 50% for three months. The electricity sector needs up to 400 million cubic feet of gas a day through the winter; only two LNG cargoes have been confirmed for September, and a standard cargo (about 140,000 cubic metres, 3 billion cubic feet) amounts to roughly a week's supply.