HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints11 September 2026, Friday

Drones launched from Iraq strike Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which has been shut down

The main export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz has been knocked out; Yanbu loadings are reported to have halted, with repairs expected to take anywhere from days to weeks.

As reported by Al Jazeera and ABC, drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions; the attack caused injuries and damage, and the pipeline was shut as a precaution. About 4–5 million barrels of oil a day are said to flow through the pipeline. Iraq dismissed a commander in the Maysan region. Turkish media give differing dates for the attack, 10 and 12 September.

The East-West pipeline was the main alternative route carrying Saudi exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. While the Saudi energy minister said the pipeline would reopen within days, sources cited in the press say repairs could take 5–6 weeks. With the Houthis seizing territory on the Bab el-Mandeb coast in the same days, both exit routes for Gulf exports have come under direct pressure.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

With Hormuz closed, the loss of the main alternative route carrying Saudi exports to Yanbu has shut the most critical safety valve for Gulf supply. Official messaging (days) and press sources (5–6 weeks) diverge on repair time; given the scale of the attack, a partial recovery over weeks rather than days is more likely. A strike launched from Iraqi territory and Houthi pressure at Bab el-Mandeb show the risk is not a one-off.

Likely effects

Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
Closure of a line carrying roughly 4–5 million barrels a day, with both Gulf exits under pressure, supports an additional 3–5 dollar risk premium in Brent. Every report on the repair timetable adds to near-term price volatility.
Saudi exports and revenueNegative1–6 months
The halt to Yanbu loadings means Riyadh loses its only large export outlet outside Hormuz. If the closure lasts weeks, higher prices may not offset lost volumes and Saudi fiscal balances come under pressure.
Iraq–Saudi relationsNegative1–6 months
Drones launched from Iraq leave Baghdad facing accusations that it cannot control armed groups on its territory. Dismissing a commander in Maysan is a first step, but new attacks could deepen diplomatic tension between the two capitals.
Türkiye energy billNegative1–6 months
For energy importer Türkiye, this second bottleneck in Gulf supply keeps oil and fuel costs high, pushing the current account deficit and inflation upwards. The disinflation path becomes more sensitive to energy prices.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Partial recovery over weeks45%
The line returns gradually at reduced capacity over a 5–6 week repair process; Yanbu loadings stay limited throughout.
Watch: A gradual rise in tanker departures from Yanbu in tracking data and an Aramco timetable for returning to capacity.
2
Rapid reopening within days30%
As the energy minister said, the line reopens within days and Yanbu loadings quickly normalise; the risk premium partly recedes.
Watch: An official reopening announcement and loadings resuming at Yanbu within a week.
3
New attacks, extended closure25%
Iraq-based or Houthi attacks recur; the line stays shut for weeks and, with pressure at Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf exports contract sharply.
Watch: New hits on the pipeline or Yanbu facilities and attacks targeting tanker traffic in the Red Sea.

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Brent▲ +$3–5

Historical context