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HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints2 September 2026, Wednesday

Venezuela's National Assembly approves an agreement handing 17 oil fields to US-backed NABEP for 100 years

A 100-year concession covering more than 65 billion barrels of oil, about a fifth of Venezuela's proven reserves, was approved by parliament on 2 September. Agreements with Chevron, Eni and GE Vernova were also signed in Caracas the same day.

The palm-lined inner courtyard and fountain of the Federal Legislative Palace in Caracas
Federal Legislative Palace, seat of Venezuela's National Assembly, Caracas (December 2008)Photo: Miguel Arturo González Márquez / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 2.0 · resized · Source
CARACAS

The agreement was signed on 1 September 2026 and approved by Venezuela's National Assembly on 2 September. Under it, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) receives the concession for 17 oil fields for 100 years. The company is owned by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. The Office of Strategic Capital, part of the Pentagon, has taken a 35% stake in NABEP's parent company. The US State Department has obtained the right to buy 20% of output at cost; the US also has a right of first refusal on the remaining 80%. A majority of board members will be US citizens. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright attended the signing of three agreements in Caracas on 2 September alongside interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Chevron plans to raise its output in the Orinoco Belt to about 600,000 barrels a day with investment of more than 7 billion dollars by 2031. Eni signed a 25-year contract for the Junin 5 field. GE Vernova undertook to improve electricity infrastructure.

The agreement brings fields previously operated by Russian and Chinese companies directly under US control. This marks a concrete rupture in great-power rivalry in Latin America. The White House expects NABEP to make 100 billion dollars of infrastructure investment and to generate 200 billion dollars in tax and royalty payments over 25 years. Some opposition deputies abstained in the vote without having seen the written text. According to Euronews, Washington's aims also include lowering fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections. However, Rystad Energy analysts calculate that returning to output of 3 million barrels a day would require more than 183 billion dollars of investment over more than a decade. The impact on global supply will therefore remain limited in the near term.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

By transferring roughly a fifth of Venezuela's proven reserves to a US-controlled structure for 100 years, the deal creates a tangible break in great-power rivalry in Latin America. Its near-term effect on global supply is limited, though: according to Rystad, returning to 3 million barrels a day requires more than 183 billion dollars of investment over more than a decade. A 100-year concession approved under an interim president, in a vote where some opposition deputies abstained without seeing the written text, will remain open to legal and political legitimacy challenges for years to come.

Likely effects

  • Global oil supplyUncertain6 months+

    Chevron's goal of about 600,000 barrels a day in the Orinoco by 2031 and NABEP investments could raise Venezuelan output over the medium to extended term. In the near term, infrastructure and investment needs keep the supply effect limited.

  • Russia and China's regional positionNegative1–6 months

    Fields previously operated by Russian and Chinese companies passing to US control directly weaken Moscow's and Beijing's energy assets and political influence in Latin America. Legal challenges and arbitration moves may follow.

  • Venezuelan sovereignty and legitimacyNegative6 months+

    US purchase of 20% of output at cost, a US right of first refusal on the rest and a US-citizen majority on the board feed the sovereignty debate. A future government questioning the deal is a lasting risk.

  • Türkiye and energy pricesUncertain6 months+

    A gradual rise in Venezuelan supply could ease price pressure for energy importer Türkiye by diversifying global oil supply over time. This effect will play out over years, however, and will not offset today's Gulf-driven price shocks.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Gradual implementation, slow output rise55%

    NABEP and Chevron investments begin and output rises slowly over years; the deal stays in force under the interim government.

    Watch: Chevron's Orinoco output data and NABEP's first infrastructure investment announcements.

  2. 2
    Delay through legal and political challenges35%

    Arbitration claims by Russian and Chinese companies, opposition objections or uncertainty over political transition slow investment.

    Watch: Arbitration filings by former operators and the deal being reopened for debate in the courts or parliament.

  3. 3
    Rapid output growth10%

    US financing and sanctions easing accelerate investment and output rises faster than expected.

    Watch: A marked rise in Venezuelan crude output within a few quarters and rapid progress on the infrastructure investment the White House anticipates.

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Sources

  1. Energy Connects — As US-Venezuela Oil Deal Takes Shape, Here Are the Key Points
  2. Euronews — Venezuela hands the US control over a fifth of its oil in landmark deal
  3. Local10 — U.S. energy secretary approves '3 large corporate deals' in Venezuela
  4. Al Jazeera — US energy secretary will travel to Venezuela to unveil oil arrangement