MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence13 September 2026, Sunday
Foreign Minister Fidan in Damascus: President Erdoğan's visit to Syria in the near future
An annual trade target of 10 billion dollars and the integration of armed elements into the central state featured prominently in the talks.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met his Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani in Damascus and held a joint press conference. The talks addressed an annual trade target of 10 billion dollars between the two countries. Fidan stressed the importance of integrating all armed elements in Syria into central state structures, condemned Israel's attack on the Abu al-Duhur base and announced that President Erdoğan's visit to Syria would take place in the near future.
Sources give differing dates for the visit: one analysis puts the Diyarbakır visit on 12 September and the Damascus visit on 13 September. In the same period Fidan also warned Greece over the militarisation of islands with demilitarised status. Normalisation on the Syria track is a critical file for Türkiye in terms of both border security and reconstruction and trade channels.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Fidan's Damascus visit and the announcement that Erdoğan will travel to Syria in the near future show Ankara's intent to turn relations with the Damascus government into an economic and security partnership. The 10-billion-dollar annual trade target is ambitious, but the decisive factors are the integration of armed groups into the central state and the security environment shaped by Israeli strikes. The most likely course is that the visit takes place and brings limited but gradual progress with concrete economic agreements.
Likely effects
- Türkiye trade and constructionPositive1–6 months
Normalisation and the trade target open reconstruction and cross-border trade channels for Turkish exporters, contractors and logistics firms; the economies of border provinces are the first to benefit.
- Türkiye border securityUncertain6 months+
If armed groups are successfully integrated into the central state, the threat perception on Türkiye's southern border declines; if the process stalls, their presence remains a security risk.
- Türkiye–Israel rivalryNegative1–6 months
Fidan's condemnation of the Israeli strike on Abu Duhur air base shows Syria will remain an arena of security rivalry between Ankara and Tel Aviv; the risk of incidents could heighten bilateral tension.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Visit takes place with gradual progress50%
Erdoğan's visit happens in the coming months; agreements are signed on trade, energy and infrastructure, while progress on integration and security remains slow.
Watch: Official announcement of the date of Erdoğan's Damascus visit and the scope of economic agreements signed
- 2Delay due to security incidents35%
Israeli strikes or clashes with armed groups inside Syria change the agenda; the visit is postponed and economic steps are put on hold.
Watch: More frequent Israeli strikes in Syria and increasingly vague statements about the visit
- 3Serious setback to normalisation15%
The integration process collapses and the internal balance in Damascus breaks down; Türkiye's economic opening halts and border security returns to the top of the agenda.
Watch: Large-scale clashes between the central government and armed groups or suspension of integration agreements
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.