MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints9 September 2026, Wednesday
After highlighting energy and nuclear cooperation in Moscow, Vietnamese leader To Lam turns to preparing 29 deals in New York under the shadow of US tariffs
In September To Lam is on a tour covering Russia, France, the US and Canada. In Moscow the two countries reiterated a trade target of 15 billion dollars for 2030. The Washington programme is expected to include agreements between Petrovietnam and Chevron, Murphy Oil and ExxonMobil.
According to Free Malaysia Today and IBTimes, Vietnamese President and Communist Party General Secretary To Lam travelled to Russia on 7 September and attended the International Space Summit in Paris on 9–10 September. He will address the UN General Assembly on 22 September and visit Canada from 24 September. According to the text of the Kremlin's joint statement of 9 September (state source), the two countries reiterated a trade target of 15 billion dollars by 2030. The statement also highlighted that trade grew by 13.8% in the first half of 2026 and the agreement on a Russian-designed nuclear power plant signed in March.
According to a Reuters-sourced report in The Standard, 29 agreements are due to be announced at a business conference in New York on 23 September. These include agreements between Petrovietnam and Chevron and Murphy Oil, and between Vietnam's refining and petrochemical company and ExxonMobil. According to IBTimes, Vietnamese goods face a 20% tariff under a reciprocal trade arrangement, with an additional 12.5% tariff added through a Section 301 step in July. Hanoi is trying to protect its roughly 153 billion dollars of exports to the US by obtaining arms and energy from Moscow and market access from Washington.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
To Lam's tour is a textbook case of Hanoi's multi-vector balancing: seeking arms, energy and nuclear cooperation from Moscow and market access from Washington. The deals planned with US energy companies in New York are a gesture to protect roughly 153 billion dollars of exports to the US. The most likely path is the 29 agreements being signed while the 20% tariff and the 12.5% Section 301 surcharge largely remain in the near term.
Likely effects
- Vietnamese exports and US tariffsNegative1–6 months
The 20% tariff plus the 12.5% surcharge weakens the competitiveness of Vietnamese exporters reliant on the US market. If the deals fail to secure tariff relief, the risk of part of production shifting to other countries rises.
- US–Vietnam energy cooperationPositive1–6 months
Petrovietnam's deals with Chevron and Murphy Oil, and the Vietnamese refining company's with ExxonMobil, show Hanoi turning to US energy to offset its trade surplus. This creates a concrete bargaining chip in tariff negotiations.
- Türkiye's US market competitionUncertain1–6 months
High tariffs on Vietnamese goods could create a relative opportunity for Turkish exporters competing with Vietnam in the US market in sectors such as textiles, apparel and furniture. The size of the effect depends on the gap with tariffs applied to Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Deals signed, tariff burden persists65%
29 agreements are announced on 23 September, but Washington makes no significant tariff cut in the near term and negotiations continue.
Watch: The content of agreements signed at the 23 September New York business conference and US statements on tariffs.
- 2Deals plus partial tariff relief25%
In return for energy purchases and investment pledges, the US removes or reduces the Section 301 surcharge.
Watch: An announcement by the Office of the US Trade Representative changing the Section 301 tariff on Vietnam.
- 3Russia ties cause friction10%
Nuclear and arms cooperation with Russia draws a reaction in Washington; some deals are postponed or new restrictions are raised.
Watch: US criticism of Vietnam's nuclear plant agreement with Russia, or postponement of the deals.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Sources
- Free Malaysia Today — Vietnam's To Lam to visit Russia, France, US this month
- IBTimes Singapore — Vietnam's To Lam to Visit Russia, France, US and Canada in September
- The Standard (HK) — US, Vietnam firms to sign agreements as To Lam travels to New York
- GlobalSecurity/Kremlin text — Statements by the President of Russia and the President of Vietnam (state source)