MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence9 September 2026, Wednesday
Mechanism between Türkiye, Iraq and the KRG for the evacuation of PKK positions in Iraq
The first phase of the plan envisages the evacuation of 18 positions under MIT oversight; the number of people to lay down arms varies by source.
According to press reports, the mechanism set up between Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil envisages the PKK evacuating 18 of its positions in Iraq. According to a report based on Al-Alam Al-Jadid, about 4,200 members of the organisation will lay down their arms, the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) will oversee 72 locations and Qandil will be excluded from the first phase.
A Serbestiyet report dated 2 September, however, refers to about 3,800 people in 18 camps and a target date of 1 October; the number of people is contradictory across sources and could not be independently verified. The process directly affects the security costs on Türkiye's southern border and the risk profile of trade projects running through Iraq, such as the Development Road.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The mechanism between Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil is a concrete step towards handling the PKK's presence in Iraq within a trilateral framework. However, the number of people set to lay down arms conflicts between sources and could not be independently verified; keeping Qandil out of the first phase shows the hardest part has been deferred. The most likely path is the evacuation of 18 positions advancing gradually, with slippage from the 1 October target.
Likely effects
- Türkiye southern border securityPositive1–6 months
Evacuation of positions and MIT oversight of 72 points could reduce Türkiye's need for cross-border operations and the security cost on its southern border. The effect will emerge gradually, depending on how verifiable implementation proves.
- Development Road and tradePositive6 months+
A reduced armed presence in northern Iraq lowers the security risk for trade and transport projects running through Iraq such as the Development Road. This creates a positive backdrop for financing and investor interest.
- Türkiye–Iraq–KRG relationsPositive1–6 months
The trilateral mechanism deepens Ankara's institutional security cooperation with Baghdad and Erbil. A successful first phase could improve the bargaining climate on other bilateral files such as energy and water.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual and delayed implementation60%
Evacuation of the 18 positions begins but advances in stages, with slippage from the 1 October target and uncertainty over numbers; Qandil is left to a later phase.
Watch: Official confirmation around 1 October of the first MIT-supervised evacuations and disclosure of the number disarming.
- 2Process stalls25%
Disputes over numbers and oversight authority, or a clash on the ground, suspend the evacuation plan.
Watch: Statements that evacuation has been postponed, or reports of new armed clashes in the area.
- 3Rapid, on-schedule implementation15%
The first phase is completed on the planned date, the oversight mechanism works and a second phase concerning Qandil comes onto the agenda.
Watch: A joint statement from Ankara, Baghdad and Erbil announcing completion of the first phase.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.