MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints14 September 2026, Monday
Protesting students in Serbia submit a list for the 25 October election; Vučić will resign on 27 September to run for prime minister
The student movement behind nearly two years of protests submitted its electoral list on 14 September. President Vučić announced he would resign on 27 September and lead the SNS list as its candidate for prime minister.
On 14 September 2026 university students who have been protesting since the collapse of the Novi Sad station canopy on 1 November 2024, which killed 16 people, submitted their list for the 25 October snap parliamentary election to the electoral commission. Several thousand people took part in a march in Belgrade. President Aleksandar Vučić announced he would resign on 27 September, even though his term runs until May 2027. On 5 September the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) named him head of its list and candidate for prime minister. Vučić argued that his party would win more than 50% of the vote and criticised the student list as having no programme.
The 25 October election is seen as the most serious test for the SNS, in power since 2012. Vučić's move from the presidency to the premiership can be read as a strategy to retain power by circumventing the constitutional term limit. The government's police crackdown on protesters and its accusations of foreign influence are drawing international criticism. The outcome will affect the balance in the Western Balkans with regard to Serbia's EU accession process, relations with Kosovo and its closeness to Russia and China. Possible instability during the electoral process could create a risk premium for dinar assets and regional investment.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The 25 October election is the most serious test of SNS rule since 2012, yet the party's organisational advantage and Vučić heading the list keep SNS the favourite. The most likely outcome is SNS finishing first, though by a narrower margin as the student movement enters the ballot. Whatever the result, Vučić's move from the presidency to the premiership will keep alive the debate over concentration of power and post-election protests.
Likely effects
- Serbia's internal stabilityNegativeWeeks
Police interventions and accusations of foreign influence during the campaign could heighten street tensions. The possibility of disputed results carries a risk of protests continuing right after the vote, which could raise the risk premium on dinar assets.
- EU process and Western BalkansUncertain1–6 months
The result will shape the pace of Serbia's EU accession, relations with Kosovo and closeness to Russia and China. A strong SNS showing means the current balancing policy continues; a weak one means policy uncertainty.
- Türkiye's Balkan relationsUncertain1–6 months
Türkiye's political and economic ties with Serbia rest largely on dialogue built with the current leadership. Protracted political uncertainty could delay permits, tenders and project timelines for Turkish companies investing in the region.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1SNS wins a majority alone45%
SNS takes the bulk of the vote, Vučić becomes prime minister and the current policy line continues; protests go on but the government remains stable.
Watch: SNS's parliamentary majority in the official 25 October results and how close its share comes to the 50% Vučić claims.
- 2SNS first but a weak government35%
SNS finishes first but needs partners for a majority; even with Vučić as prime minister the government stays fragile and talk of early elections persists.
Watch: Official results leaving SNS without a majority of seats and coalition bargaining dragging on.
- 3Opposition majority or deep crisis20%
The student list and the opposition together approach a majority, or widespread challenges to the results turn into a major political crisis.
Watch: Strong polling for the student list, large demonstrations after election night and formal challenges to the results.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.