HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints15 September 2026, Tuesday
Drone strikes knock out three of Russia's six largest diesel refineries; Moscow prepares to extend its diesel export ban to the end of October
The Kirishi refinery has shut down completely, while Volgograd and NORSI are running at about 25% capacity. Ryazan was hit on 6 September. The government is expected to extend the diesel export ban to the end of October.
According to an OilPrice.com report dated 15 September, three of the six large refineries (Omsk, Kirishi, Taneco, Volgograd, NORSI, Perm) that account for about half of Russia's diesel output have been seriously damaged. Kirishi, hit on 30 August, has shut down completely; Volgograd and NORSI are running at about 25% capacity, and Taneco was also hit at the weekend. According to the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed that it struck the Ryazan refinery on the night of 6 September. According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate, a Russian refinery was hit on average every three days in the first eight months of 2026. Russia's crude oil production was 8.36 million barrels per day in August, a drop of 940,000 barrels per day compared with January.
According to a Hydrocarbon Processing report citing Vedomosti, a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak agreed to extend the diesel export ban, due to expire at the end of September, to the end of October. The decision has not yet been officially announced. The gasoline export ban is already in force until the end of the year. Russian diesel exports fell below 1 million tonnes in June, compared with about 2.5 million tonnes a month a year earlier. Türkiye and Brazil took at least half of this diesel. The supply squeeze pushed diesel in the US above 6 dollars a gallon for the first time. The development is of direct importance for Türkiye's diesel supply and refining margins.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Ukraine's refinery strikes have moved from symbolic to systemic: three of the six large plants that supply roughly half of diesel output are badly damaged. With hits averaging one every three days, repairs cannot keep pace; extending the diesel export ban to end-October is all but certain, and a further extension is a strong possibility. Tightness in the global diesel market could persist for months.
Likely effects
- Global diesel marketNegative1–6 months
Russian diesel exports fell in a year from about 2.5 million tonnes a month to under 1 million. That gap must be filled by other producers; the US gallon price topping 6 dollars shows that upward pressure on diesel prices and margins is global.
- Türkiye diesel supplyNegative1–6 months
Türkiye and Brazil took at least half of Russian diesel. Türkiye must cover the gap from more distant sources at higher freight and premiums, creating upside risk to inflation through pump prices and transport costs.
- Refining marginsUncertain1–6 months
Tighter diesel supply widens refining margins. This creates a divergence: positive on the revenue side for refineries with working capacity, including in Türkiye, and negative on the cost side for fuel consumers and the logistics sector.
- Russian market and revenueNegative1–6 months
Crude output fell by 940 thousand barrels a day from January and product exports are restricted. Export bans aim to protect the domestic market but cut Moscow's fuel export revenue and do not fully relieve domestic price pressure.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Ban extended to end-October, capacity partial60%
The extension is formalised; strikes continue while repairs proceed; Kirishi stays offline, Volgograd and NORSI run at low capacity and Russian diesel exports remain subdued.
Watch: Official publication of the government's extension decision and statements on a restart date for Kirishi.
- 2Crisis deepens, ban extended to year-end35%
Remaining large plants such as Omsk and Perm are also hit; the diesel ban is widened to year-end like the petrol ban and domestic shortages become visible.
Watch: New hits on the remaining large diesel refineries and a second extension decision at end-October.
- 3Rapid repairs, ban eased5%
Air defences reduce the strike tempo, damaged plants return to capacity and the ban is lifted or partly relaxed at end-October.
Watch: Volgograd and NORSI returning well above 25% capacity and a recovery in monthly diesel exports.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.