What they did
It closed the State Duma election held on 18–20 September with a constitutional majority: United Russia took 57.83% on the party list, finished ahead in 208 of the 225 single-member districts, and turnout was announced as 59.32%. In the same days it lost the Moscow Refinery in the capital, and then the Kuibyshev plant in Samara and the Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim facilities in Bashkortostan. It made no official statement on the damage; the Ministry of Defence announced that 1,110 Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight.
Why
The loss of refining capacity is no longer a single-plant matter. At the Moscow Refinery the AVT-6 unit processing 21,400 tonnes a day and the EURO+ unit processing 18,800 tonnes a day burned together; the plant, with a capacity of 11 million tonnes a year, came to a halt, and it supplied roughly 40% of the Moscow fuel market. The Ukrainian General Staff announced that as of 21 September more than 45% of the refining industry's design capacity was out of service; that figure belongs to a party to the conflict and could not be independently verified.
What they must do
It has to keep curbing exports in order to protect domestic fuel supply: the diesel export ban has been extended to 31 October. At the same time it must carry the policy rate the central bank held at 14.00% on 11 September, keep inflation — 6.3% as of 7 September — under control despite fuel-driven pressure, and write the 2027 budget on an assumption of 50 dollars a barrel.
What comes next
The diesel export ban expires on 31 October, and the decision on whether to extend it will be the most visible indicator of whether the domestic shortfall has closed. The opening of the new Duma and the debate on the 2027 budget text come next; there is an OPEC+ meeting on 4 October. Repairs at the Moscow Refinery are reported to require several weeks.
Preference
The loss of refining capacity screened by export restrictions, crude revenue continuing, and the constitutional majority renewed at the ballot box passing the war budget without trouble.
Observed behaviour
A stance that rations the loss at home: it shuts off product exports, does not disclose the damage, keeps the policy rate high, and renews political legitimacy at the ballot box.
Sources
- Ukrainska Pravda — Moscow Refinery has halted processing, according to Reuters
- Interfax-Ukraine — Ukraine has knocked out more than 45% of Russian refining capacity
- Meduza — United Russia secures a constitutional majority, turnout 59%
- Central Bank of Russia — Policy rate held at 14.00%
- OilPrice — Russia extends its diesel export ban through October
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