Inside Türkiye's rising confidence index: spending is being pulled forward while the energy shock builds up at the producer

Two opposite signals in the same survey

According to the September 2026 results of the Consumer Tendency Survey, conducted jointly by the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, the consumer confidence index rose 1.3 per cent on the previous month, from 90.8 to 91.9. That is the highest value since July 2018, when the index stood at 92.9. It nonetheless remains below the 100 threshold, meaning that by the technical definition the overall picture on the consumer side is still pessimistic.

The distribution beneath the headline, however, is not uniform. The index of the household's current financial situation fell 0.1 per cent from 75.4 to 75.3 and was the only sub-index to decline. Expectations for the household's financial situation over the next twelve months rose 0.6 per cent from 93.1 to 93.7, and expectations for the general economic situation rose 0.5 per cent from 89.4 to 89.8. The strongest move came in the propensity to spend on durable goods, up 3.6 per cent from 105.1 to 108.8. That component is the only sub-index above the 100 threshold.

This combination has a consistent reading. A household's present financial position deteriorating while its intention to buy durable goods increases is explained not by improving purchasing power but by spending pulled forward in the expectation that prices will rise further. Bringing forward demand for deferrable items such as white goods, furniture and vehicles is familiar behaviour in inflationary environments. This is an interpretation, and the survey asks no such question; but the direction of the sub-indices is consistent with that interpretation, not with one of pure optimism.

The producer side does not confirm the optimism

Real sector data are not moving in the same direction as the headline confidence figure. According to data published by the CBRT on 21 September, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index rose 0.1 points to 102.5, while the unadjusted index fell 0.8 points from 102.8 in August to 102.0, its lowest level in five months. In manufacturing, the seasonally adjusted capacity utilisation rate rose 0.6 points to 74.1 per cent and the unadjusted rate 0.7 points to 74.2 per cent, recovering after two months of decline.

The identity of the components dragging the index down is decisive here: expectations for export orders over the next three months, stocks of finished goods, fixed capital investment spending and expectations for production volume. What is weakening, in other words, is not current output but forward-looking order books and investment appetite. Capacity utilisation recovering while investment and export expectations fall points to a phase in which existing orders are being completed but new ones are not arriving at the same pace.

Where the shock comes from: the energy import bill

According to data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute on 21 September, the Export Producer Price Index rose 3.61 per cent month on month and 32.60 per cent year on year in August 2026. The increase from the start of the year is 25.16 per cent, and on twelve-month averages 32.35 per cent. By sector, mining and quarrying rose 43.41 per cent year on year and manufacturing 32.41 per cent; the increase measured 56.40 per cent in metal ores and 41.29 per cent in chemicals.

Among the main industrial groupings the sharpest move is in energy: an annual increase of 106.24 per cent and a monthly increase of 14.68 per cent. Intermediate goods rose 32.39 per cent year on year and capital goods 20.59 per cent. Non-energy groups remaining in a 20–33 per cent band shows that the acceleration in the index comes not from broad-based demand pressure but directly from crude oil and refined product prices. An energy price component that more than doubles in a year changes both refining margins and the exporter's cost structure in an economy that imports crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

This also explains why the pulling-forward behaviour on the consumer side is rational. An energy-driven increase of 106.24 per cent in producer prices passes in time into final goods prices. If households expect that pass-through, buying the durable good today is a decision born of expectation rather than of confidence.

The exchange rate, the equity market and the fund market

Price pressure came from the currency side in the same week. On the week's first trading day USD/TRY rose to 48.80 lira, renewing its all-time high; in the free market the bid stood at 48.81 lira and the ask at 48.83 lira. The euro traded in a band of 55.86–55.88 lira and sterling at 65.11–65.13 lira. Behind the move lies the Federal Reserve's increase of the policy rate to a range of 3.75–4.00 per cent and its signal of a further hike; the dollar index crossed the 100 threshold for the first time since 30 July, reaching 100.300 points.

On Borsa Istanbul the BIST 100 index opened down 115.88 points, or 0.87 per cent, at 13,168.54; by 13.00 the loss had widened to 1.92 per cent and the index had fallen to 13,028.71 points, with turnover of 79.9 billion lira. By sector the holding index fell 4.21 per cent and the leasing and factoring index 9.55 per cent, while the banking index was flat at 0.01 per cent. The index had closed the previous Friday down 1.67 per cent at 13,284.42 points. The 21 September closing value could not be independently verified: one compilation gives it as 13,199 points, down 1.04 per cent, but the same closing figure is repeated on the following day's page as well.

The mechanism cited as the source of the selling matters, because it is technical rather than macro: a liquidity squeeze in the fund market following the regulatory decision of 17 September on the liquidation of 130 investment funds, and forced sales driven by margin calls. Extending the liquidation period from 3 months to 6 months is intended to spread the selling pressure over time. The 9.55 per cent fall in the leasing and factoring index shows in which leveraged areas this technical pressure is concentrated.

As long as the Hormuz channel stays open, so does the bill

The source of the energy component is not Türkiye's own demand but Hormuz. Two crew members were lightly injured on the 72,825 dwt crude tanker LR Stephanie, struck on 21 September as it entered the Gulf; the vessel continued under its own power. A liquefied petroleum gas tanker was affected by unidentified munition fragments the same day. The Joint Maritime Information Centre counts at least five incidents or security cases since 16 September and is keeping the threat level in the strait at its highest grade.

Traffic data confirm the hardening but conflict with official accounts. According to Kpler data only 17 commodity vessels transited the strait over the weekend, against 37 the previous weekend. Across the week 22 tankers carried roughly 42 million barrels of crude. Against that, US Admiral Brad Cooper said more than 2,000 commercial vessels had been escorted and that volumes over the past fortnight were the highest in six months; the two pictures could not be independently reconciled. Even the pre-war baseline varies between sources, from 85 to 125 vessels a day.

The practical conclusion for Türkiye is this: as the uncertainty in the strait persists, the risk premium in the energy import bill is preserved even if the benchmark crude price falls back. Indeed, over the same days, while Brent slipped towards 100 dollars, the energy component of Türkiye's export producer prices stood at 106.24 per cent year on year and diesel had passed 100 lira for the first time on 17 September. The benchmark price easing while the exchange rate sets records does not bring the bill down.