The dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points

Likely effects

• Import bill and inflationNegativeWeeks

  The dollar rising to 48.82 lira directly raises the cost of imported energy and intermediate goods in a setting where annual inflation stands at 31.51%; the exchange-rate pass-through will show up in consumer prices in the months ahead.

• Borsa Istanbul liquidityNegativeWeeks

  Losses of 4.21% in the holding index and 9.55% in the leasing index show the selling is driven by collateral and liquidation rather than fundamentals. Volume of 79.9 billion lira indicates the exit is broadly based.

• Room for monetary policyUncertain1–6 months

  With the policy rate held at 37%, a record exchange rate pushes back the CBRT's timetable for cuts. The dollar index rising to 100.300 also raises reserve and swap costs.

Possibilities, ranked

1. 1
   Controlled depreciation continues55%

   The exchange rate keeps setting new records but daily moves stay contained; the BIST 100 trades volatile around 13,000 points throughout the fund liquidation calendar.

   Watch: The 49 lira threshold for the dollar and daily BIST 100 volume staying above 80 billion lira.

2. 2
   The dollar index retreats and pressure eases30%

   The Fed's signal of a further increase weakens, the dollar index falls back below the 100 threshold and externally driven pressure on the lira abates.

   Watch: The dollar index falling below 100 points and a retreat in the US 10-year yield.

3. 3
   A sharp currency move and intervention15%

   Geopolitical escalation or faster fund outflows widen daily moves in the currency; direct foreign exchange intervention and additional macroprudential steps come onto the agenda.

   Watch: A sharp weekly fall in CBRT reserves and a rising number of intraday circuit breakers on the exchange.

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.