MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence15 September 2026, Tuesday
Ukraine confirms Lyman counter-offensive; according to ISW, territory retaken in August exceeded Russian gains
In August Ukraine retook at least 129.81 km² while Russia advanced 90.35 km²; Russian gains fell sharply compared with a year earlier.
According to ISW's 2 September assessment, Ukraine retook at least 129.81 square kilometres in August 2026, while Russia advanced 90.35 square kilometres; including infiltration zones, the Russian figure is 123.53 square kilometres. Russia had seized 505.55 square kilometres in August 2025. According to a Kyiv Post report of 15 September based on ISW, the Ukrainian military openly confirmed for the first time the counter-offensive north-west of Lyman; Russia launched 200 unmanned aerial vehicles the same night.
This shift along the front line shows that Russia is losing momentum on the ground despite high energy revenues. Even so, the intensity of the war is not decreasing; both sides continue to target each other's energy infrastructure. The claim in early compilations of power cuts in five regions caused by 174 unmanned aerial vehicles could not be verified in accessible sources.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
ISW data show the area Ukraine recaptured in August exceeded Russian gains, and that Russia's advance slowed sharply compared with a year earlier. This suggests Russia is losing momentum on the ground but does not mark a strategic turning point: gains are limited to a few hundred square kilometres and both sides continue striking energy infrastructure. The most likely path is a war of attrition with local shifts.
Likely effects
- Front balance and negotiationsUncertain1–6 months
Russian gains falling from 505.55 square kilometres in August 2025 to 90.35 square kilometres strengthen Kyiv's hand in any negotiations. Moscow's argument that time is on its side on the battlefield weakens.
- Energy infrastructureNegativeWeeks
Russia launching 200 drones on the same night shows its stand-off strike capacity persists despite setbacks on the ground. Pressure on Ukraine's power grid is likely to rise ahead of winter.
- Türkiye and the Black SeaUncertain1–6 months
Undiminished war intensity keeps risks alive for maritime trade and energy infrastructure in the Black Sea. The shift in the front balance could open a new window for Türkiye's mediation and ceasefire efforts, but near-term results are premature to expect.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Attrition with local shifts65%
The sides gain or lose limited ground; local advances occur around Lyman but there is no major break in the front line.
Watch: ISW's territorial assessment for September and combat reports around Lyman.
- 2Ukraine extends its gains20%
The Lyman counteroffensive widens and Ukraine achieves net territorial gains in consecutive months.
Watch: Ukraine's recaptured area in September exceeding August's level and new settlements liberated north-west of Lyman.
- 3Russia regains momentum15%
Russia halts the counteroffensive and lifts its monthly gains again with a new offensive wave.
Watch: Russian monthly gains rising again to several hundred square kilometres.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.