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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt16 September 2026, Wednesday

Central government budget posted a 12.9 billion lira surplus in August, but the eight-month deficit passed 1.3 trillion lira

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance published the August figures on 16 September: despite the monthly surplus, the January-August deficit reached 1,308.1 billion lira.

ANKARA

According to figures released by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance on 16 September 2026, the central government budget posted a surplus of 12.9 billion lira in August, with revenue of 1,654.9 billion lira and expenditure of 1,642.1 billion lira. In the same month, primary budget expenditure was 1,445 billion lira and the primary budget surplus 209.9 billion lira. Ekonomist reported the monthly surplus as 12.8 billion lira; the difference between the two sources comes from rounding. According to the annual changes given by Ekonomist, August revenue rose 28.5% and expenditure 37.8%.

In the January-August period, budget expenditure reached 12,162.7 billion lira and revenue 10,854.7 billion lira, leaving a deficit of 1,308.1 billion lira; the eight-month primary surplus was recorded at 680 billion lira and primary expenditure at 10,174.6 billion lira. According to Ekonomist, eight-month expenditure rose 36.8% and revenue 36%; personnel spending rose 42.7% to 3,385.39 billion lira, while interest payments rose 39.4% to approach 2 trillion lira. Tax revenue grew 35.7%, with income tax up 51.8% and corporation tax up 46.9%.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 12.9 billion lira surplus in August is a month's breathing space; the real picture is a deficit reaching 1,308.1 billion lira over eight months and a 39.4% rise in interest payments. Although revenue rose 36%, expenditure rose 36.8%, showing that fiscal tightening has not deepened enough to pull inflation down. The most likely path is for the deficit to keep widening towards the end of the year.

Likely effects

  • Türkiye's disinflation programmeNegative1–6 months

    The primary surplus remaining at 680 billion lira over eight months does not lighten the burden on monetary policy; that remains a factor narrowing the CBRT's room to cut rates.

  • Domestic borrowing marketNegative1–6 months

    Interest payments rising 39.4% to approach 2 trillion lira increases the Treasury's rollover needs and creates upward pressure on benchmark yields.

  • The tax baseUncertainWeeks

    Income tax up 51.8% and corporation tax up 46.9% point to nominal growth and improved collection; but that increase does not cover the growth in spending.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    The deficit keeps widening55%

    Pressure from interest and personnel spending continues in the final quarter; the year-end deficit overshoots the eight-month path.

    Watch: A return to a monthly deficit in the September and October budget outturns

  2. 2
    A flat path through the autumn30%

    Faster tax collection offsets the rise in spending and the deficit stays on its current path.

    Watch: Tax revenue growth being sustained above 35.7%

  3. 3
    Marked fiscal tightening15%

    Spending is reined in, the primary surplus rises markedly and the deficit path breaks lower.

    Watch: The monthly primary surplus holding consistently above 209.9 billion lira

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Eight-month budget deficit▼ 1.31 trillion TL
  • Interest payments▼ +39.4%
  • August primary surplus▲ 209.9bn TL

Sources

  1. Alomaliye — Budget posted a 12.9 billion lira surplus in August
  2. Ekonomist — Budget deficit passed 1.3 trillion lira in the first eight months of the year