MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI3 September 2026, Thursday
China's CXMT begins production of HBM3E high-bandwidth memory as its global DRAM share reaches 10%
Despite export controls, China can produce the memory used in AI chips, but it remains a generation behind its competitors.
According to Korea JoongAng Daily, CXMT, China's largest DRAM maker, has begun small-scale production of HBM3E, a version of the high-bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators; Alibaba's T-Head unit and Cambricon are testing the product. According to the report, which draws on SemiAnalysis, yields on the previous-generation HBM3 are only around 25%. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, meanwhile, are at the HBM4 stage.
According to Seoul Economic Daily, CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue reached 10% for the first time in the second quarter of 2026; the company's first-half revenue was 150.3 billion yuan. The development shows that US export controls restricting access to advanced lithography have not halted China's memory capacity, but have preserved the technology gap.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
CXMT starting small-scale HBM3E production and reaching a 10% share of global DRAM revenue shows that US export controls have not halted China's memory capacity but have preserved the technology gap. Yields of around 25% on HBM3 and rivals being at the HBM4 stage point to a generational gap persisting at the high end. The most likely path is continued scale gains in standard DRAM and a slow narrowing of the gap in AI memory.
Likely effects
- Global memory competitionNegative1–6 months
CXMT's growing DRAM share creates price and market-share pressure on Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, especially in standard products.
- China's AI supply securityPositive6 months+
Testing of domestic HBM by Alibaba's T-Head unit and Cambricon could over time reduce China's dependence on foreign memory supply for AI accelerators.
- US export-control policyUncertain1–6 months
Production starting despite controls may increase pressure in Washington to widen restrictions on memory and manufacturing equipment.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual convergence, persistent gap65%
CXMT grows its share in standard DRAM and produces HBM in limited volumes at low yields; the one-generation gap with rivals remains.
Watch: CXMT's quarterly DRAM revenue share and industry reports on HBM yields
- 2Tighter US restrictions25%
Washington imposes additional export restrictions on CXMT or memory manufacturing equipment; HBM capacity growth slows.
Watch: New US Commerce Department restrictions targeting memory makers or equipment
- 3Rapid technological leap10%
Yields rise faster than expected and CXMT approaches the HBM4 class; Chinese AI chips switch to domestic memory at scale.
Watch: CXMT announcing HBM4 sampling or volume supply deals with major Chinese customers
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.