MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints16 September 2026, Wednesday
Belarus frees 25 political prisoners in return for the US lifting sanctions on two state companies
US special envoy John Coale announced an interim agreement the day after his meeting with Lukashenko. Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom are being removed from the sanctions list. According to Viasna, about 887 political prisoners remain behind bars.
President Trump's special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, announced an interim agreement on 16 September 2026, the day after his meeting with Alexander Lukashenko: Belarus will release 25 people and the US will lift sanctions on two Belarusian companies. According to The Moscow Times, these companies are the paint and industrial coatings maker Lakokraska and the state-owned forestry, paper and pulp group Bellesbumprom. This follows the large swap in March, in which 250 prisoners were released and two state banks, the Finance Ministry and major potash producers were removed from the sanctions list. A further 10 people were freed under an agreement in April.
According to ABC News, the Viasna human rights centre reports that 887 political prisoners are still in prison. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stressed that the releases do not amount to systemic reform and that repression continues. These step-by-step swaps show Belarus gradually escaping Western sanctions on potash, banking and industry. They also point to a narrow channel with Washington through which Minsk could reduce its dependence on Russia. EU sanctions, however, remain in place, keeping the risk of transatlantic divergence alive.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Removing two state companies from the sanctions list in exchange for 25 prisoners shows that the transactional model established by the March and April swaps continues. With Viasna reporting some 887 political prisoners still behind bars, Minsk retains many bargaining chips. The most likely path is further step-by-step swap rounds without systemic reform, and a deepening divergence between US and EU sanctions policies.
Likely effects
- Belarusian economyPositive1–6 months
The gradual removal from US sanctions of potash, banking and now paint and forestry groups widens Belarus's export and financing channels and opens some room to reduce its dependence on Russia.
- Transatlantic sanctions alignmentNegative1–6 months
Unilateral US easing while EU sanctions stay in place creates a split within the West on Belarus policy and may weaken the deterrent effect of sanctions.
- Political repression in BelarusUncertain6 months+
Although the releases are positive for the individuals, they involve no systemic reform, as the opposition stresses; the risk remains that new detentions replenish the prisoner pool.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Step-by-step swap rounds65%
Periodic new deals between the US envoy and Minsk follow; each round delists specific companies in exchange for a limited number of releases.
Watch: New Coale visits to Minsk and further Belarusian companies removed from the OFAC list
- 2Process stalls25%
New detentions or Russia-related developments raise the political cost in Washington; swaps come to a halt.
Watch: A rise in Viasna's prisoner count and US statements opposing sanctions easing
- 3Comprehensive normalisation10%
Swaps evolve into upgraded diplomatic relations and broad sanctions removal.
Watch: A decision on ambassador-level representation or an announcement of wholesale sanctions removal
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.