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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence10 September 2026, Thursday

Israel blows up Hezbollah tunnels under south Lebanon's Ali Taher Ridge with over 1,100 tonnes of explosives; air strikes go on despite the ceasefire

Israeli strikes following Hezbollah drone launches on 5–6 September caused casualties. The massive blast on 10 September was recorded by the US Geological Survey (USGS) as a magnitude 4.1 earthquake.

NABATIEH / ALI TAHER

After Hezbollah sent drones towards troops in the Israeli-controlled zone, Israel struck five locations in Tyre, Nabatieh and the Bekaa on 5 September. According to Lebanon, 3 people were killed and 23 injured. In strikes targeting Arab Salim and Nabatieh al-Fawqa on 6 September, at least 4 people were killed and 20 injured. On 10 September the Israeli army destroyed two tunnel lines more than 2 kilometres long beneath Ali Taher Ridge using over 1,100 tonnes of explosives. These tunnels had been described as the headquarters of Hezbollah's Badr regional division. The blast was recorded like a magnitude 4.1 earthquake. The network destroyed, together with Beaufort, consists of eight tunnels with a total length of 5.4 kilometres.

According to Lebanon, more than 4,300 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since March 2026. Israel holds a security zone extending about 10 kilometres inside the border. The US-mediated framework agreement signed on 26 June provides for Lebanon to disarm non-state armed groups and for a step-by-step Israeli withdrawal. Hezbollah, however, opposes this framework and direct negotiations. Although the destruction of the tunnel infrastructure consolidates Israel's control on the ground, mutual attacks by the two sides are making the withdrawal timetable and the financing of Lebanon's reconstruction uncertain.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The destruction of the tunnel network under Ali Taher Ridge consolidates Israel's battlefield advantage in southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah drone attacks and Israeli air strikes show that the ceasefire is not functioning in practice. Hezbollah's opposition to the 26 June framework agreement leaves the disarmament and phased withdrawal timetable uncertain. The most likely course is a stalemate in which Israel holds its security belt and mutual attacks continue at low-to-medium intensity.

Likely effects

  • Southern Lebanon securityNegativeWeeks

    Continued civilian casualties in strikes on Tyre, Nabatieh and the Bekaa, and more than 4,300 deaths since March 2026, prevent the return of residents and normal life in the border area.

  • Lebanon reconstruction financingNegative6 months+

    Uncertainty over the withdrawal timetable and continuing attacks lead international donors to tie reconstruction funds to disarmament; Lebanon's economic recovery is delayed.

  • Israel–Lebanon talksUncertain1–6 months

    Talks slated to resume in the US offer a diplomatic channel, but Hezbollah's opposition to direct negotiations limits the Beirut government's capacity to implement commitments on the ground.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Continued stalemate70%

    Israel holds its roughly 10-kilometre security belt and continues infrastructure demolitions and targeted air strikes; Hezbollah responds with limited drone attacks and the withdrawal timetable does not advance.

    Watch: Outcomes of the Israel–Lebanon talks in the US and weekly strike and casualty counts in southern Lebanon

  2. 2
    Broader escalation20%

    Hezbollah attacks causing troop casualties or Israel striking senior targets widen the conflict; Israel launches operations beyond the security belt.

    Watch: Israeli troop casualties from Hezbollah attacks, Israel targeting Beirut or an expansion of ground operations

  3. 3
    Progress on the framework agreement10%

    The US-mediated talks produce a concrete timetable; the Lebanese army expands its deployment in the south and Israel takes its first phased withdrawal step.

    Watch: A joint statement from the talks with a disarmament and withdrawal timetable and additional Lebanese army deployment to the south

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Sources

  1. The Times of Israel — 3 said killed in IDF strikes in Lebanon after Hezbollah drone attack on troops
  2. Al Jazeera — Israeli air attacks on Lebanon kill at least four
  3. The Times of Israel — Sept. 10 liveblog: Earthquake recorded after IDF demolition of Hezbollah tunnel network
  4. JNS — Israeli-Lebanese talks slated to resume in US