MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence15 September 2026, Tuesday
Israeli strikes on Gaza on 15 September kill at least five people, including two children and a Hamas commander
The ceasefire that began in October 2025 holds on paper. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 1,381 people have been killed and 4,757 injured since the ceasefire.
At least five Palestinians were killed in Israeli air strikes on the north and south of Gaza on 15 September. In Gaza City's Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood, a paramedic and a 15-year-old student were killed and seven people injured in a vehicle struck a second time at the same spot. In a strike on the Mawasi tent camp in Khan Younis, a man and an 8-year-old girl were killed and 14 people injured. Hamas sources announced that senior commander Nail Abu Ubaid was among the dead. The previous day two more people, described by Israel as Hamas commanders, had been killed.
According to Health Ministry figures cited by Al Jazeera, the death toll since the October 2025 ceasefire has reached 1,381 and the number of injured 4,757. The death toll since October 2023 stands at 73,795. The Israeli army reports that it lost four soldiers in the same period. The ministry says the health system is on the verge of near-total collapse due to restrictions on fuel and supplies. Near-daily violations are undermining the disarmament and withdrawal phases of the Board of Peace. Israel's continuing strikes, justified on the grounds that Hamas is regrouping, also reduce the likelihood of the ceasefire turning into a lasting solution.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The October 2025 ceasefire has in effect become a low-intensity conflict: 1,381 deaths since the truce and near-daily violations are eroding the ground for the disarmament and withdrawal phases. Israel's argument that Hamas is regrouping indicates the strikes will continue. The most likely course is for the ceasefire to persist on paper without formally collapsing; the chances of a lasting settlement are low, while the risk of humanitarian collapse is high.
Likely effects
- Gaza humanitarian situationNegativeWeeks
With the health system near collapse under fuel and supply restrictions, every person wounded in strikes has lower chances of survival; civilian casualties keep accumulating during the ceasefire.
- Peace processNegative1–6 months
Targeted killings of commanders and violations undermine the parties' trust in the Board of Peace's disarmament and withdrawal phases; Hamas's disarmament and Israel's withdrawal steps risk postponement.
- Türkiye–Israel relationsNegative1–6 months
Continuing civilian casualties under the ceasefire increase pressure on Türkiye to harden its diplomatic stance towards Israel, which could spill over into areas of bilateral tension in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Ceasefire persists on paper70%
The ceasefire is not formally broken; Israel continues targeted air strikes, casualties rise and the disarmament and withdrawal phases stall.
Watch: Weekly increase in the Gaza Health Ministry's post-ceasefire death toll and outcomes of Board of Peace meetings
- 2Ceasefire collapses20%
A chain of retaliation begins after a commander's killing or soldier casualties; Israel returns to large-scale ground and air operations.
Watch: The Israeli military announcing a new ground operation in Gaza or Hamas declaring the ceasefire over
- 3Progress to the next phase10%
Under mediator pressure violations decline; agreement is reached on a disarmament and withdrawal timetable, and fuel and supply deliveries increase.
Watch: The Board of Peace announcing a disarmament timetable and a marked increase in fuel and supplies entering Gaza
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.